Prices at +12.2% with volumes falling by -3.5%

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Organized food retail turnover continues its upward trend in 2023 according to NielsenIQ, as it shows an overall positive trend for the first quarter of 2023 of +8.2% based on YTD data up to April 2, 2023 compared with the corresponding period of last year.

In more detail, the specific trend is mainly driven by food, both fresh with +8.1%, and standardized food and beverages with +8.2%, mainly due to their significant contribution in industry sales.

However, according to NielsenIQ, what’s interesting is that if you break down the overall trend of +8.7% FMCG, it’s clear that this growth continues to be purely inflationary, as prices rose by 12, 2%, while volumes respectively fell by -3.5%.

At +25.4% the share of private label products

In this strongly inflationary environment, the share of private label products saw a significant increase, from 23.8%, which was at the end of 2022, to 25.4%, in the market that also includes the discount channel, while at the same time the manufacturers of branded products are trying to become even more competitive, further intensifying their promotional intensity, from 66.7% at the end of last year, to 68.2%.

The largest retail halls show the greatest growth with +11.5%

Analyzing then the market in the different typologies of stores, as well as in the different geographical areas, as defined by NielsenIQ, it follows that the biggest growth is shown by the largest halls (over 2500 m2), at +11.5%, a fact that possibly due, among other things, to the fact that shoppers choose the larger stores, where, in addition to a greater variety, they can find more offers available, as well as more competitive prices.

At the level of geographical regions, the regions of Crete and the Peloponnese continue to show the most positive growth trends with +15.4% and +6.8% respectively. Of course, at the same time, this increase in turnover seems to be linked to stronger inflationary pressures in these areas, compared to the country as a whole.

Significant sales decline in seed oils

Now focusing NielsenIQ’s analysis on the performance of specific product categories, the seed oil category is showing a significant decline in its total sales with a 16.9% decrease compared to the high base of 2022, due to the war in Ukraine and the shortages observed at the market.

The downward trend of volumes is more restrained

More general, for the first quarter of 2023, NielsenIQ analysts point out that as regards the course of fast-moving consumer goods, there appears to be a relative de-escalation of inflationary pressure compared to the last quarter of 2022 (+13.2% versus 12.2%).

However, if we take into account the fact that in the first quarter of 2022 the market had already started to register a price increase of +3.3%, this means that the current inflationary pressure is coming to be added to an already elevated base.

At the same time, the downward trend in volumes appears to be more moderate in this year’s first quarter with a rate of -3.5% compared to that of 2022 (-7.0%), which proves that consumers are showing a more moderate reaction to increase in prices (decrease in price elasticity), according to the latest NielsenIQ statistics.


Source: Food Reporter #0938/2023-04-24