IELKA: Stabilization and marginal de-escalation of prices in organized retail in June 2025
Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Stabilization and slight de-escalation of prices is being recorded in large supermarkets, according to a recent study by the Institute for Consumer Goods Retail Research (IELKA). The study, which focused exclusively on the large chain channel, analyzed price trends in June 2025 compared to the corresponding month in 2024, based on actual sales data rather than sampling.
According to the research findings, inflation in supermarkets was 1.78% on an annual basis, showing a decrease compared to the 2.47% recorded in May 2025. In fact, on a monthly level, prices recorded a small decline of 0.35%. The total rolling twelve-month period from July 2024 to June 2025 shows almost zero increase, just 0.25%.
In general terms, the first half of 2025 is characterized by mild inflationary pressures of around 1.13%, which are mainly attributed to the rise in international prices of raw materials such as cocoa, meat, and coffee. The IELKA research also highlights significant price reductions in categories such as detergents, grocery foods, paper products, cosmetics and personal hygiene items, as well as appetizers and pet food. These reductions are mainly due to the de-escalation of producer prices and market normalization, while promotional activities by large chains also play an important role.
Price increases in fresh meat, fruits, vegetables and chocolate products
Conversely, increases were observed mainly in fresh meat, biscuits, chocolates, sweets, fresh fruits and vegetables, frozen items, and dairy products with refrigerated juices. The significant rise in fresh meat prices is attributed to the reduction of livestock in 2024 due to animal diseases and the increase in international prices of imported products, mainly beef and pork. International increases in cocoa and coffee prices affect the cost of sweets and beverages, while the increase in fresh fruits and vegetables is linked to the colder weather conditions of 2025, which delayed production and increased prices compared to 2024.
According to IELKA, it is significant that price restraint in large supermarkets is due to factors such as inflation de-escalation, operation under a strict institutional framework with new codes of ethics that have been in effect since March, as well as the strong presence of offers and discounts. Additionally, the high turnover velocity of inventory in large stores leads to faster price adjustment, while the increasing penetration of private label products contributes to downward pressure on prices.
The analysis of unit value, that is, the ratio of sales to volume per product category, offers a comprehensive picture of both price changes and consumer purchasing choices, confirming the trend of price stabilization in organized food retail.
Source: FoodReporter July 4th 2025 #1442, page 3.